S'pore's total fertility rate in 2023 projected to drop to historic low of 0.97; cost and parenting pressure among factors

SINGAPORE —  Singapore’s total fertility rate continues to decline and is estimated to hit an all-time low of 0.97 for 2023.

The rate has been on a downward trend since 2018, when it was 1.14. It continued to fall to 1.12 in 2021, followed by 1.04 in 2022.  

It has stayed below the replacement level of 2.1 for many years. This is the level of fertility at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next.

Ms Indranee Rajah, Minister in the Prime Minister’s Office, said in Parliament on Wednesday (Feb 28) that there were various reasons for Singapore’s low fertility.

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"Some are temporal, for instance, couples that had their marriage plans disrupted by Covid-19, which may have in turn delayed their parenthood plans.

"Others cite concerns about the financial costs of child-raising, pressures to be an excellent parent, or difficulties managing work and family commitments."

She was speaking at a debate on the budget for the Prime Minister's Office, which includes the National Population and Talent Division.

She also said that Singapore is confronted with “twin demographic challenges” of a persistently low fertility rate and an ageing population.

These challenges "are not unique to Singapore", she added, and other advanced societies such as South Korea and countries in the Southeast Asian region such as Malaysia and Thailand have grappled with their fertility rates. 

European countries including Italy and Spain have also continued to see “record lows” in their birth rates yearly, she said.

Singapore’s falling total fertility rate thus reflects a “global phenomenon where individual priorities and societal norms have shifted”. 

WHAT A LOW BIRTH RATE MEANS FOR SINGAPORE

A falling total fertility rate has “serious implications” for Singapore’s future, Ms Indranee said, with couples in the "sandwiched" segment having to bear the brunt of caring for the young and old.

Additionally, with more Singaporeans remaining single, it would also result in “weaker familial support networks” when they are older. 

Aside from the social impact of a declining total fertility rate, there would also be a significant impact on the economy, because a “vibrant economy” is ultimately driven by people, and with fewer births, Singapore’s workforce will be affected, Ms Indranee added. 

“A strong and vibrant economy is critical for Singapore, as it helps raise our standard of living and gives us resources to tackle challenges." 

She gave the example of South Korea and Italy, where both countries faced economic slowdowns and declining wages, further compounded by low fertility and the resulting demographic changes.

“It will be increasingly challenging to maintain our dynamism, attract global businesses and create opportunities for the next generation.

“Fundamentally, we need more Singaporeans,” Ms Indranee said. 

BUILDING A FAMILY-FRIENDLY SINGAPORE

Despite the declining total fertility rate, “the bright side is that our young Singaporeans still aspire towards marriage and parenthood", even though they might not be as proactive toward these goals, Ms Indranee said.

To support marriage and parenthood, the Government will provide “a conducive environment” for couples who wish to start a family, she added.

Ms Indranee, who is also Second Minister for Finance and National Development, noted that Budget 2024 had a number of announcements aligned with this, including enhancements to the Baby Bonus scheme, a government voucher to help couples rent a flat on the open market before their Build-to-Order flat is ready, and the lowering of the childcare fee limit for selected preschools. 

She added that the Government is working to mandate two more weeks of paternity leave, which was announced during last year's Budget, “as soon as possible, to benefit more fathers”.

At the same time, she is aware that with more leave provisions in place, there may be workplace adjustments and that employers may face challenges in making arrangements to cover employees’ extended absences.

“We are therefore actively exploring how to increase paid parental leave.” 

GRANTING CITIZENSHIP 

To moderate the impact of low birth rates and ageing trends, Singapore has been granting citizenship at “a measured and stable pace”, Ms Indranee said. 

Last year, Singapore granted about 23,500 new citizenships, including about 1,300 to children born overseas to Singaporean parents. In the same year, there were 34,500 new permanent residents. 

In 2022, 23,082 people were granted citizenship, and 34,493 were granted permanent residency. 

In terms of maintaining the racial balance of the citizen population, Ms Indranee said that the inflow of immigrants is “carefully managed”. 

“The pace and profile of our immigration intake has been and will continue to be managed to maintain the racial balance in Singapore’s citizen population.” 

She added that Singapore is constantly looking ahead to its future population needs when it comes to granting citizenship. For example, it granted a higher number of permanent residency to healthcare workers to support the growing healthcare needs here.